With low expectations, Gerapetritis visits Libya today

With the visits of Foreign Minister Giorgos Gerapetritis today to Benghazi and apt connected July 15 to Tripoli, Athens is picking up again the thread of Greek-Libyan relations, successful an effort to forestall caller faits accomplis successful the discourse of the Turkey-Libya Memorandum and to power illegal migration flows, portion the interior concern successful the state remains highly fluid and dangerous. The contented of maritime zones arsenic good arsenic the engagement successful Sudan threatens to disrupt relations with the almighty neighbor, Egypt.

Athens is acceptable to suggest the resumption of dialog for the delimitation of maritime zones, a dialog that volition practically instrumentality spot successful parallel with Tripoli and Benghazi, until determination is simply a unified practice of the country. A hard endeavor, arsenic galore obstacles indispensable beryllium overcome, the astir important possibly being Benghazi’s volition to negociate by exercising sovereignty implicit maritime zones it theoretically controls.

According to our sources from the situation of the Speaker of the Libyan House of Representatives, Aguila Saleh, Egypt and Cyprus must beryllium progressive successful this discussion, which means that, astatine slightest from this side, Turkey is excluded from the negotiations. Of course, wrong the 2 camps successful Libya, determination are antithetic groups with conflicting interests, with Benghazi’s “prime minister” Osama Hammad operating successful a antithetic discourse than that of the Speaker of the House. In Eastern Libya, however, the connection of General Khalifa Haftar carries the astir weight, whom Mr. Gerapetritis is expected to conscionable today, Sunday.

The archetypal program of the Greek curate foresaw successive visits to some Benghazi and Tripoli. However, owed to interior developments successful Libya, the Tripoli authorities astatine the past infinitesimal requested the sojourn beryllium rescheduled. This mightiness really beryllium a affirmative thing, arsenic the messages conveyed done the meetings with General Haftar volition impact the talks that the Foreign Minister volition person successful Tripoli the Tuesday aft next. According to information, Tripoli projected a day for Mr. Gerapetritis’ sojourn lone aft it became known that the gathering with General Haftar had been arranged.

The Foreign Minister volition conscionable with General Haftar successful Benghazi, arsenic the Speaker of the House volition beryllium absent. The commandant of the Libyan National Army (LNA), who holds dual nationality (Libyan and American), is the strongman of Eastern Libya and has transformed from a reddish emblem for the planetary assemblage into a counterpart for the Americans, Europeans, Russians, and of people the Turks, successfully balancing successful a marketplace of securing quid pro quos.

Athens’ extremity is to dispel the content created implicit the past 2 years, during which relations with Benghazi were astir nonexistent, to connection incentives wrong the capabilities of Greece, and astatine the aforesaid clip to item the value of avoiding provocative actions that could rupture relations with the EU.

A affirmative development

In this context, it is recorded arsenic a affirmative improvement for Athens that, truthful far, contempt contrary information, the ratification of the Turkey-Libya Memorandum has not been submitted to Parliament. General Haftar was among the archetypal to reason the memorandum, attributing it to Ankara’s blackmail of the past Tripoli authorities of Fayez al-Sarraj successful bid to supply Turkish subject assistance, which halted his beforehand toward Tripoli successful aboriginal 2019.

Since then, however, overmuch has changed, and Turkey has present afloat restored its relations with Eastern Libya and Haftar himself, arsenic it seeks during the country’s governmental modulation to consolidate its power and validate the signed memoranda truthful that they stay successful spot adjacent aft a unified authorities is formed—whenever that whitethorn occur.

The statement signed by the authorities lipid companies of Turkey and Libya, TPAO and NOC respectively, to commencement exploration successful 4 blocks successful the imaginable Libyan EEZ was the archetypal alarm bell. Although astatine archetypal glimpse these bash not look to overlap with areas of the Greek EEZ, arsenic unilaterally defined by Law 4001/2011, this is lone the beginning. It represents Turkey’s effort to hindrance Libya connected the crushed successful a practice that whitethorn aboriginal grow to areas claimed by Libya from Greece nether the Turkey-Libya Memorandum.

Libya, however, is not relying solely connected Turkey successful the vigor sector. As announced by NOC past week, it volition proceed successful November with the archetypal tender since 2007 for licenses for exploration and drilling successful 22 onshore and offshore areas, for which 37 overseas companies person already expressed interest, including American Chevron, French Total, and Italian Eni. The beingness of specified ample companies volition evidently provoke beardown contention for Turkish TPAO.

For 14 years now, aft the chaos pursuing the overthrow of Gaddafi, Libya has been a tract of confrontation betwixt Turkey and Egypt. Cairo reacts not lone to the neo-Ottoman conception of expanding Turkish power to the borders of the Ottoman Empire but besides due to the fact that the strengthening of Turkey’s beingness successful Libya could crook it into a lever of strategical unit connected Egypt, which shares much than 1,000 kilometers of onshore borderline with Libya.

Despite the steps toward restoring Ankara-Cairo relations, determination remains aggravated suspicion toward specified moves, arsenic Egypt sees itself losing the monopoly of enactment and power implicit General Haftar, successful whom it has invested for astir a decade.

Athens, lacking some the capableness and the volition to get progressive successful a bidding warfare of offers to Libya’s rival factions, is examining a practice bundle that volition include, among different things, the resumption of the programme for Libyans to survey and bid successful the Armed Forces’ productive Schools, wherever determination is simply a agelong contented from the Gaddafi era, the proviso of scholarships, the enhancement of wellness and acquisition programs, the continued enactment for the restoration of Benghazi’s port, and practice successful different sectors. At the aforesaid time, nonstop aerial connectivity betwixt Benghazi and Athens volition besides beryllium reexamined.

Strong card

Greece’s beardown paper is, of course, its alignment truthful acold with Egypt, but chiefly the important relation the EU plays successful Libya.

This coming Tuesday, European Commissioner for Migration Magnus Brunner is expected to sojourn Tripoli and Benghazi, accompanied by the Ministers of Migration of Greece, Italy, and Malta. There they volition convey to some sides the wide connection that Europe does not mean to let the opening of a caller large way of amerciable migration from Africa done Libya.

At the aforesaid time, practice measures volition beryllium examined, which volition intelligibly see the proviso of expertise and backing to code the migration problem.

The European ngo volition get successful Tripoli soon aft Gerapetritis’ sojourn to Benghazi and conscionable earlier his sojourn to Tripoli. All this astatine a clip erstwhile the EU, astatine the highest level during the European Council summit, reaffirmed its presumption connected the invalidity of the Turkey-Libya Memorandum—a presumption that volition beryllium conveyed to some sides successful Libya to marque wide that moves to enforce the amerciable memorandum volition not spell without consequences.

Turkey has afloat restored its relations with General Haftar, with the opening of a consulate successful Benghazi and with expressions of involvement from galore Turkish companies for projects successful Eastern Libya, portion determination is besides subject cooperation. Following the authoritative sojourn to Turkey by General Haftar’s son, Lieutenant General Saddam Haftar, commandant of the Libyan National Army’s Ground Forces, connected April 4, 3 subject method delegations from Eastern Libya traveled to Turkey betwixt June 15–28, visiting subject office and units.

Cairo, according to sources cited without being specified by Middle East Eye, has approached 1 of the peculiar envoys appointed by U.S. President Donald Trump, Massad Boulos, asking him to intervene with General Haftar and exert power truthful that the Turkey-Libya Memorandum is not ratified. The website reports that determination was a telephone telephone betwixt Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty and the American official, during which the erstwhile warned of the hazard of tensions successful the Eastern Mediterranean astatine a clip erstwhile Egypt is dealing with the consequences of the conflicts successful Gaza and Sudan.

Egypt, which was among the archetypal countries to condemn the Turkey-Libya Memorandum successful 2019—not lone owed to the irregularity successful its signing process but besides for substantive reasons—reacted powerfully erstwhile Tripoli attempted a twelvemonth agone to enforce a maritime delimitation betwixt the 2 countries based connected the memorandum’s line, which overlaps portion of Egypt’s EEZ. And now, the archetypal representation of the blocks offered by Tripoli to the Turkish institution TPAO concerns precisely this area.

Due to developments regarding the maritime zones contented and the probable engagement of Haftar’s forces successful the civilian warfare successful Sudan—supporting the RSF (Rapid Support Forces) against the government-backed forces supported by some Egypt and Turkey—President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi invited the strongman of Eastern Libya to Cairo, wherever they held talks, though it has not been disclosed what precisely was decided during their meeting.

The moves of the Haftar family

Eastern Libya, possessing funds from lipid income and enjoying the enactment of determination and planetary powers, but chiefly owed to the “order” imposed by General Haftar, is successful a amended authorities than Western Libya and is present moving toward attracting overseas investment.

A starring relation successful this effort is played by Belkacem Haftar, lad of the wide and president of the Reconstruction Fund of Eastern Libya. Haftar’s lad has visited galore European capitals, portion successful April helium was successful the United States, seeking to pull involvement from American lipid companies to enactment successful vigor programs and probe successful areas controlled by his begetter successful Eastern Libya.

General Haftar has six sons and 1 daughter. Saddam Haftar is the Chief of Staff of the Special Forces, Khaled Haftar is commandant of the Security Units, and Belkacem is successful complaint of concern and reconstruction. Another son, Al-Sadiq, who precocious visited Greece arsenic his household was vacationing there, is progressive successful the cultivation assemblage successful Eastern Libya. The different 2 sons, arsenic good arsenic his daughter, unrecorded successful Virginia, USA.