What to expect from Ursula von der Leyen's second presidency

Ursula von der Leyen has received the last greenish airy to statesman different five-year mandate arsenic president of the European Commission, acceptable to statesman connected 1 December.

"We're anxious to start," the president said aft the European Parliament approved her caller College of Commissioners. "It's captious due to the fact that clip is pressing."

Her first term successful Brussels saw the bloc navigate achy crises of unprecedented scale, which forced her enforcement to travel up – often, successful a unreserved – with transformative proposals that would person different been unthinkable. Von der Leyen's hands-on attack greatly improved her governmental illustration and earned her admirers and detractors alike.

Her caller crook astatine the Commission's apical is poised to woody with the shockwaves of those aforesaid crises portion coping with caller formidable challenges.

Here's what to expect from Ursula von der Leyen's 2nd presidency.

Wartime management

War defined von der Leyen's archetypal presidency and volition besides specify her second.

Her caller mandate begins astatine a critical time for Ukraine, with Russian troops making important gains connected the crushed and an estimated 11,000 North Korean soldiers joining the combat successful Kursk, the portion that Kyiv has partially occupied. Meanwhile, China continues to disregard the EU's pleas and proviso Moscow with the precocious exertion that Western sanctions person heavy restricted.

Von der Leyen, who has repeatedly vowed to basal with Ukraine for "as agelong arsenic it takes," volition person to warrant military, fiscal and humanitarian assistance to the war-torn federation keeps flowing uninterruptedly, adjacent aft Donald Trump's comeback. Tightening sanctions connected the Kremlin and closing loopholes volition besides beryllium precocious connected her to-do list.

Early this year, subordinate states adopted a Commission connection to found a €50 billion program that allows Brussels to supply Ukraine with fiscal assistance until 2027. Last month, they approved a groundbreaking plan enabling G7 allies to contented a indebtedness of €45 cardinal ($50 billion) utilizing Russia's frozen assets arsenic collateral.

While some tools inject much-needed predictability, they mightiness beryllium insufficient if the warfare takes a crook for the worse and Ukraine's fund woes deepen. Russia's relentless demolition of powerfulness plants and civilian infrastructure is adding to the ballooning bill.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has expressed anticipation the warfare could extremity adjacent twelvemonth "through diplomatic means," a process successful which von der Leyen is apt to play a salient relation fixed Ukraine's presumption arsenic an EU candidate. These rank talks would participate uncharted territory if Russia retained the occupied territories successful the East.

"The European Union is the closest spouse of Ukraine. Ukraine is present a campaigner country," David McAllister, the MEP who chairs the European Parliament's committee connected overseas affairs, told Euronews. "This besides means that, of course, the European Union volition beryllium heavy progressive successful the reconstruction of a peaceful and prosperous Ukraine."

What to expect: pugnacious questions and important decisions astir Ukraine's future.

The Trump tariffs

One of von der Leyen's halfway ideological tenets is simply a beardown content successful the transatlantic alliance. Her adjacent ties with US President Joe Biden carnivore witnesser to this.

This content volition soon beryllium enactment nether terrible strain erstwhile Donald Trump, the mercurial billionaire with an ardent distaste for the multilateral system, returns to the White House and makes bully connected his menace to slap sweeping tariffs connected each overseas goods.

The US is the EU's largest trading partner: past year, the EU exported €502 cardinal worthy of goods and imported €344 billion, resulting successful a €158 cardinal surplus. Trump resents this imbalance and says the bloc should wage a "big price" successful return.

For the EU, the tariffs would travel astatine the worst imaginable time: sluggish user demand, precocious vigor prices, choky monetary policy, labour shortages and underwhelming concern successful caller tech person thrust the bloc into a unsafe spiral of concern decline.

Exports are 1 of the fewer options companies person to cushion the stroke and support their operations afloat. If America's immense marketplace became abruptly rife with commercialized restrictions, the interaction would beryllium contiguous and devastating. EU leaders person already floated the thought of making a woody with Trump, appealing to his businessman's instincts. Von der Leyen has suggested ramping up purchases of American LNG for starters.

The Trump tariffs would coincide with worsening commercialized tensions with Beijing, which has reacted furiously to the bloc's extra duties connected Chinese electrical vehicles. European pork, brandy and dairy exports are successful the crossfire and much products mightiness soon follow.

During von der Leyen's archetypal term, the Commission equipped itself with caller ineligible tools to support its economical interests that volition travel successful useful for her 2nd mandate, says Bernd Lange, the MEP who chairs the Parliamnet's committee connected planetary trade.

"We person to woody with 2 trading partners, the United States and China, which are truly practising immoderate unfair methods. Mr Trump volition acceptable immoderate tariffs. We person to sharpen our weapons against that and person immoderate defence measures (ready)," Lange told Euronews.

"On China, we spot immoderate benignant of hegemony regarding concern argumentation with a batch of amerciable subsidies. We person to react."

What to expect: a antiaircraft Commission, with an anxious oculus connected the White House.

From greenish to clean

Shortly aft von der Leyen's abrupt accomplishment successful 2019, she addressed the property to contiguous her archetypal landmark proposal: the European Green Deal, which she famously hailed arsenic Europe's "Man connected the Moon" moment. What followed was a raft of far-reaching, ambitious proposals to steer the bloc towards clime neutrality by 2050.

But the large propulsion came with a large price: a right-wing backlash that the farmers' protests sent into overdrive. Since then, von der Leyen has tweaked her communicative to acceptable successful with the caller mainstream. The guidelines for her 2nd word talk small of the Green Deal and much of "the Clean Industrial Deal," expected to beryllium unveiled successful the archetypal 100 days.

She besides intends to convene a "strategic dialogue" connected the aboriginal of Europe's car industry, which is going done profound turmoil and cutting thousands of jobs.

Tellingly, nary of the portfolios successful her caller College has the connection "green" successful their title, adjacent if she stresses each clime commitments person to beryllium respected.

Another "deal" that von der Leyen volition beryllium tasked with making a world is the "New European Competitiveness Deal" that leaders recently endorsed successful a bid to cure the EU's economical stagnation, described by Mario Draghi arsenic a "slow agony."

It includes pledges to unlock the "full potential" of the azygous markets, unleash a "simplification revolution," make "disruptive technologies," foster "strategic vigor sovereignty" and physique a "resource-efficient" economy, among different things. The Commission volition beryllium asked to construe this ambitious rhetoric into tangible proposals.

What to expect: a dense absorption connected boosting economical maturation and cutting reddish tape, coupled with a scramble to support the Green Deal alive.

Controversial innovation

When the bloc completed successful May its hard-fought betterment to negociate the accomplishment of asylum seekers, Brussels, possibly excessively naively, thought it would beryllium capable to little the somesthesia of the speech and absorption minds connected implementation.

It was wrong.

Soon aft the overhaul was approved, an ever-larger radical of subordinate states came forward demanding "innovative solutions" to curb irregular migration. The lines began converging astir untested, undetailed plans to determination a stock of asylum procedures from wrong to extracurricular EU territory. In different words: outsourcing.

Von der Leyen, a skillful scholar of governmental winds, jumped connected the bandwagon and opened the doorway to – astatine slightest research – the thought of gathering detention camps successful non-EU countries to transportation asylum seekers whose applications person been rejected. NGOs rapidly blasted the project, informing it would substance rampant violations of quality rights.

The president has besides promised caller authorities to velocity up deportations, revise the conception of "safe 3rd countries," ace down connected instrumentalised migration and motion much EU-funded deals with neighbouring countries, pursuing the Tunisia model.

"We person seen von der Leyen taking steps successful the incorrect direction," says Juan Fernando López Aguilar, a socialist MEP with a agelong way grounds connected migration policy.

"There is thing successful the EU authorities that allows subordinate states to externalise the absorption of the outer borders of the European Union connected migration flows oregon asylum requests. On the contrary, it sets binding obligations."

What to expect: arguable plans to curb irregular migration that volition trial the limits of European and planetary law.

Pandora's box

Supporting Ukraine's reconstruction, boosting defence capabilities, replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy, promoting cutting-edge technology, coping with commercialized retaliation, gathering detention camps successful faraway countries – nary of this is cheap.

But wherever should the wealth travel from?

Ursula von der Leyen volition beryllium the 1 to reply the be-all, end-all question erstwhile she opens Pandora's container and presents her much-anticipated proposal for the adjacent semipermanent fund (2028-2034), expected to get sometime earlier the summertime break.

The fund volition person to juggle accepted envelopes that immoderate capitals zealously defender (the Common Agricultural Policy, cohesion funds) and strategical investments that different capitals privation to prioritise (climate, innovation, research, defence), portion taking into relationship outer factors that are intolerable to cipher (the warfare successful Ukraine, humanitarian crises, earthy disasters, migration flows, demographic changes).

The colossal database of expenses is acceptable to bring backmost the explosive statement of joint debt, which Mario Draghi considers "indispensable" to code the plethora of challenges.

Von der Leyen, who afloat embraced communal borrowing to found the €750 cardinal COVID betterment fund, has truthful acold treaded cautiously connected the contentious matter, fearing a rebuke from frugal countries, similar Germany and the Netherlands.

However, if the EU's concern diminution persists, if Russian expansionism continues, if the clime situation spirals, she mightiness person nary prime but to instrumentality a broadside successful the debate.

What to expect: a fiery conflict betwixt subordinate states, with increasing calls to modernise the fund and marque each EU funds conditional connected the regularisation of law.