War’s top effect is price hikes

Nine weeks of war successful the Middle East sufficed to pb to a important revision of macroeconomic estimates, with maturation falling by astir fractional a point, adjacent to 1.7%, and ostentation rising by up to 1.5 points, supra 4%.

Economists invited by Kathimerini to measure the war’s harm so acold spoke astir the affirmative aspects of the speed the Greek system has developed since the precocious show of erstwhile years, the signs of resilience that tourism presents arsenic a cardinal operator of economical activity, but besides the risks that lurk successful the economical situation successful the lawsuit of an hold oregon escalation of the war successful the Persian Gulf.

Based connected the information so far, the interaction of the situation is estimated to beryllium stronger connected ostentation and milder connected growth, with estimates converging connected a maturation complaint of 1.5% to 1.8% and ostentation from 3.5% to 5% for this year.

“Our revised estimation for the 2026 maturation complaint nary longer has the fig 2 successful front,” Alpha Bank main economist Panagiotis Kapopoulos said, expressing an appraisal that is presently supported by the Bank of Greece, the IMF, S&P and the main economists of the different systemic banks.

The National Economy and Finance Ministry, successful the yearly advancement study submitted this week to the European Commission, acceptable the barroom astatine the 2% limit, well beneath the 2.4% forecast successful the budget.

The Greek system whitethorn besides travel under unit from the eurozone, where maturation was already expected to beryllium weak adjacent earlier the war. According to Eurobank main economist Tassos Anastasatos, “the two main channels done which the situation is transmitted to the state are evidently vigor prices, but besides the eurozone slowdown, which amounts to astatine slightest 0.3%.

However, Greece has secured two “cushions,” economists note: connected the 1 hand, the maturation momentum and the superior surpluses for respective years, which make fiscal space for the adoption of support measures, and connected the different hand, the Recovery Fund, which ensures important concern flows and supports the medium-term maturation momentum.