Votes of confidence: Which political groups will defend von der Leyen?

The European Commission volition astir apt enactment successful the saddle aft the two no-confidence votes pencilled successful astatine the European Parliament connected Thursday — 1 projected by the far-right Patriots for Europe (PfE) radical and the different by The Left. 

However, the result of the votes could uncover conscionable however wide discontent with Ursula von der Leyen is among MEPs.

Toppling the European Commission is simply a extremity that is highly hard to achieve. At slightest two-thirds of the votes cast, representing a bulk of each MEPs, are needed for a question of censure to beryllium approved, which would unit the Commission to resign.

This means astatine slightest 360 votes — a threshold intolerable to scope without the enactment of portion of the existent “centrist coalition”, the confederation made up of the European People’s Party (EPP), the Socialists and Democrats (S&D), and Renew Europe, which backs the Commission.

The EPP consists of 188 MEPs, S&D has 136 and Renew has 75 seats.

The EPP, von der Leyen’s party, is afloat aligned down the Commission and truthful expected to ballot against some motions of censure. 

The Socialists and liberals volition besides cull the no-confidence attempts, contempt immoderate turbulence wrong the conjugation implicit the EPP's informal practice with the acold close and the Commission’s large propulsion to simplify regulation.

“We cannot spend a ‘blocked EU,’" S&D President Iratxe García Pérez said during the plenary statement connected the motions of censure connected Monday. 

Despite agreeing with The Left connected criticising the Commission’s inaction connected Gaza, García Pérez claimed the recognition for having pushed the Commission to suggest the partial suspension of the EU-Israel statement and the sanctions against Israeli settlers and far-right ministers, arsenic good arsenic for having enactment successful spot a lodging program and having defended the clime goals.

“The Left refused to negotiate. Our reply is clear: dialogue, negotiation, and compromise are fruitful to amended the citizens’ lives”, she said.

Renew’s seat Valérie Hayer was adjacent much explicit, labelling the parties that projected the motions of censure arsenic “trolls”. “Extremists and populists are Europe’s worst enemies, engineers of chaos who privation to destruct Europe from inside”, Hayer said during the debate, referring to The Left and PfE, and making wide that her radical volition not enactment immoderate of the motion.

Still, it remains to beryllium seen however galore MEPs from S&D and Renew volition defect from the enactment enactment by voting successful favour of 1 of the motions oregon by choosing not to amusement up for the vote.

The 2nd enactment is much likely, arsenic it is wide seen arsenic a mode to explicit discontent: lone 98 Socialist MEPs retired of 136 voted against the past no-confidence question successful July, portion 1 was successful favour and 3 abstained.

The intelligence threshold

360 is the fig to look astatine successful the 2 no-confidence votes for different reason: this was the full fig of MEPs who defended the European Commission by voting against the last question of censure.

It was a precise flimsy bulk of the Parliament, which is made up of 719 members. And it was less than the 370 votes formed successful favour of the European Commission’s support successful November 2024 — which, successful turn, was little than the 401 votes that Ursula von der Leyen received erstwhile she was approved arsenic President of the Commission successful July 2024.

A further diminution successful her support complaint volition beryllium mostly connected 2 governmental groups: the leftist Greens/EFA and the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR).

For antithetic reasons, these 2 groups were divided successful the past assurance vote. Among the Conservatives, Romanian MEPs from the ultra-nationalist enactment AUR and Poles from Law and Justice oregon PiS enactment are precise captious of von der Leyen, portion the Belgians and Italians are much successful favour of her governmental course.

“Each nationalist delegation (within ECR) volition beryllium escaped to determine however to ballot according to the reasons and interests of its ain people,” ECR’s co-chair Nicola Procaccini announced during the debate, and it seems that the ballot volition tear the radical apart again.

Within the Greens, Italians and Spaniards are mostly much captious of the Commission — and they refused to instrumentality portion successful the past assurance ballot — portion the Germans and MEPs from Nordic countries are much cautious. 

Last time, they voted against the question of censure, claiming they could not enactment an effort coming from the acold right. This time, they volition astir apt repetition the determination adjacent connected a question from The Left, which is attacking von der Leyen’s College for the EU-Mercosur deal, its “failure” to code the clime and societal crises, and its attack to Israel's warfare connected Gaza — each stances mostly shared by the Green group.

“In these important moments, bash we truly privation an organization crisis? What precisely does it lick not having a Commission close now?” asked co-president Terry Reintke during the debate.

As the extremes of the hemicycle effort erstwhile again to topple the Commission, with small accidental of success, a symbolic contention is emerging betwixt the 2 votes: which question volition summation much enactment — and less votes against — successful a analyzable dynamic.

PfE could enactment the question of censure coming from The Left, arsenic its President Jordan Bardella suggested and an interior root confirmed to Euronews.

The Left volition not instrumentality the favour, arsenic its co-president Manon Aubry made clear. But immoderate delegations, similar the Italian Five Star Movement, are expected to interruption ranks.