Trump has neutral impact on European voting patterns, study finds

When Trump won the 2025 US elections, galore analysts and outlets saw his triumph catalysing a plaything to the close among European voters: with close helping leaders and movements crossed Europe celebrating his win, viewing it arsenic an endorsement of their stances connected issues similar migration oregon clime change, and hoping it would empower their ain parties. 

By contrast, aft the announcement connected "Liberation Day" of tariffs connected European exports, and the abrasive gathering betwixt President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Trump, others believed determination could beryllium a antagonistic effect connected close helping parties and an upswing for the left.

However, according to recent research by Brussels-based deliberation vessel European Policy Centre -  which assessed polling information and governmental events crossed Europe earlier and aft Trump’s election - has shown that, actually, Trump is not having an effect connected European voting patterns astatine all.

“At the electoral level, the EU is precise autarkic from the United States. European voting behaviours are chiefly influenced by interior factors and bash not alteration according to American governmental movements,” said Javier Carbonell, an adept astatine the EPC and 1 of the study’s co-authors. This isn’t existent successful each assemblage – markets and technological regulations, helium said are much intimately tied to US dynamics – but “Trump has not altered voting preferences successful Europe”.

At the section level

At the section level, enactment for parties to the close of the European People’s Party radical showed precise small alteration betwixt October 2024 and April 2025, according to the study. Most countries, specified arsenic Austria, Germany, Spain, and Portugal, maintained dependable elector support.

Some countries similar the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary, and Italy consistently showed precocious enactment for right-wing parties, but this enactment stayed unchangeable passim these months. Other countries with little far-right support, similar Sweden, Slovenia, Denmark, and Finland, besides didn't acquisition important changes.

Romania was an objection to the regularisation however, the report's authors said. “We didn’t see it successful the study’s database due to the fact that determination were reliability issues with the electoral information pursuing the annulment of the results,” said Carbonell, citing Romania’s controversially annulled 2024 statesmanlike election.

Overall, crossed Europe, the mean level of elector enactment for the much right-wing parties stayed astir 24-25%, which further suggests that Trump's triumph had minimal section impact.

Meanwhile, nationalist sentiment has turned against Trump: according to a survey by Le Grand Continent and Cluster 17, lone 6% to 8% of German, Spanish, and French citizens comprehend him arsenic an “ally”. And successful countries similar Denmark, Sweden, Germany and France, the indices tracking US estimation showed decreases of betwixt 20 to 30 percent points, according to YouGov. This is unsurprising, the survey says, claiming Trump’s economical policies are harming voting bases different favourable to right-wing ideas, similar those successful the Cognac and vino sectors successful France and Italy. 

Making Europe Great Again?

Attempts to mobilise Trump's tropes besides had constricted impact, according to the report. Examples see a “Make Europe Great Again” acme organized by Spain’s Vox successful Madrid, oregon Elon Musk’s interrogation with AfD’s Alice Weidel.

“These efforts did not fail, but they were counteracted,” according to Carbonell.

“Unlike successful Canada, wherever Trump’s triumph did person an interaction successful the betterment of the Liberal Party and the Conservative Party’s decline, European voters enactment according to interior factors,” Carbonell said.

“Our probe indicated that enactment for close helping and far-right parties successful the EU comes from interior factors, which could be: debased economical growth, an summation successful inequality, taste changes related to diverseness and migration, and beardown distrust towards the governmental system,” said Tabea Schaumann, chap EPC adept and survey co-author. “There’s besides backlash against advances successful sustainability, feminism, and diverseness politics. And each state has its particularities; successful Spain, for example, the territorial struggle with Catalonia is an important factor.”