Scope Ratings to publish its report on Greek economy Friday evening

The German standing bureau Scope Ratings will people its study connected the Greek system connected Friday evening.

The involvement is focused connected whether it will upgrade the recognition standing oregon the country’s outlook to positive, keeping the BBB standing unchanged, oregon whether it will support it stable.
Since the opening of the year, three standing agencies person upgraded Greece, chiefly successful terms of outlook. Scope Ratings was the archetypal bureau to upgrade Greece to concern people successful 2023, “raising” it 1 much notch astatine the extremity of 2024, citing expectations for further indebtedness reduction, higher-than-forecast superior surpluses and a betterment successful the banking system.

The German agency, successful its caller analysis, stated that Greece is simply a small but developed economy. “The state holds a starring presumption worldwide successful shipping. Other cardinal sectors are tourism, agriculture and manufacturing.” For this year, it estimates that the Greek system will turn astatine a complaint of 2.2% and an mean of 1.6% successful the play 2026-2029.
Although the system is gradually recovering from the terrible indebtedness crisis, existent GDP per capita remains 40% little than the European average, it said. “Since 2020, economical maturation has been strong thanks to precocious backstage depletion and the betterment successful backstage investment, authorities measures and Greece’s National Recovery Plan,” the analysts explained.

Greece’s weaknesses

Greece’s main weakness remains the precocious level of indebtedness arsenic it tin bounds the government’s quality to support the system successful hard times. “Political and policy-related risks are mean successful the coming years, but whitethorn summation successful the agelong term. Structural economical weaknesses and demographic challenges, such arsenic migration, bounds the semipermanent maturation trend and wealth levels,” it stated.

Regarding unemployment, analysts noted that while it decreased to 9.4% successful 2024, it remained well supra the EU mean astatine 5.9% successful October 2024. “Households proceed to suffer from debased wages, astir 20% little than 15 years ago, arsenic well arsenic debased disposable income.” These factors, they emphasized, correspond a κοινωνικά challenge, arsenic bash poorness and κοινωνικά exclusion among vulnerable groups.

Banks

As for banks, Scope said that they are much exposed than their competitors to the involvement complaint cycle, arsenic they trust chiefly connected nett involvement income, owed to their absorption connected loans and debased penetration of non-bank fiscal services.

“Given the features of the Greek banking sector, including a comparatively small owe market, lending is directed to businesses, with rather precocious vulnerability to shipping and tourism.” The non-performing indebtedness ratio fell to 3.6% successful December 2024, from 49% successful 2017, with banks not lone cleaning up their equilibrium sheets, but besides improving lending and monitoring standards.