OPAP – Allwyn: Citi and JP Morgan assess the €16 billion deal

The €16 cardinal merger betwixt OPAP and its genitor institution Allwyn has attracted important marketplace attraction and sparked differing analyses from large planetary banks. JP Morgan views the transaction arsenic affirmative for OPAP’s profitability, whereas Citi remains neutral, acknowledging the strategical value of the merger but informing that it fundamentally changes OPAP’s concern profile.

According to Citi, OPAP is transitioning from a low-risk, high-dividend company into a much leveraged and analyzable planetary maturation group. Citi estimates the caller Allwyn’s equity valuation astatine €16 billion, with an enterprise worth of €21 billion, operating profits adjacent €1.9 billion, and a 2026 net aggregate of 11x. While Citi expects the woody to boost maturation prospects — forecasting EBITDA maturation supra 10% annually for 2024–2026 — it besides foresees lower currency travel stability owed to higher concern needs and the integration of caller subsidiaries.

Citi projects that OPAP shareholders volition person a €0.50 dividend per stock for 2025 and an additional €0.80 aft the completion of the transaction. From 2026 onward, absorption aims for at slightest €1 per stock successful yearly distributions. However, the dividend output is expected to driblet to astir 5%, good beneath the 11% average of the 2021–2024 period.

Citi concludes that OPAP’s caller signifier volition apt attract growth-oriented investors, portion discouraging income-focused organization holders who favored its historically precocious and unchangeable payouts.

JP Morgan, connected the different hand, maintains an “overweight” rating and a price people of €23 per share, expecting the merger to person a double-digit affirmative interaction connected adjusted net and escaped currency flow from the first twelvemonth aft completion, which is projected for Q2 2026.