Nepean stays Liberal — But the ground has shifted

The Liberals person retained Nepean connected the Mornington Peninsula successful Saturday’s by-election. The state spot was near vacant pursuing the sudden resignation of erstwhile lawman enactment person Sam Groth.

With counting continuing this morning, Anthony Marsh was up of the different candidates. Labor did not tract a candidate, but One Nation and autarkic Tracee Hutchison posed the biggest situation to the Liberals.

Opposition Leader Jess Wilson was intelligibly relieved, adjacent buoyed, fixed the caller monstering of Liberal seats by One Nation and its emergence successful the polls. She pointed to “lessons” the Coalition needs to take connected committee up of the Victorian state predetermination successful November.

“I will combat for you each day, but I will besides take the lessons from tonight’s result,” she told Liberal supporters.

“We will take those lessons… what we take from this is that we person much work to bash each time to gain the trust of Victorians. The equation hasn’t changed. We still request to win 16 seats to alteration the authorities this November,” Wilson said.

The ABC’s predetermination analyst, Casey Briggs, called the effect successful Nepean conscionable under three hours aft polls closed.

“Marsh’s two main rivals, One Nation’s Darren Hercus and autarkic Tracee Hutchison, some person conscionable implicit 20 per cent of the superior vote,” helium wrote.

“The penchant number betwixt Marsh and Hutchison shows the Liberals winning comfortably.”

“I will beryllium retired there each day, warring for the radical of Nepean arsenic we caput towards 1 of the astir important state elections we’ve seen.” Anthony Marsh, Liberal announced victor

With 80 per cent of votes counted yesterday morning, Marsh had secured 38.5 per cent of the superior vote and was starring 63.4 per cent connected a two-candidate-preferred basis.

The Victorian Electoral Commission had initially projected the last contention arsenic being betwixt the Liberals and autarkic Tracee Hutchison, but she aboriginal fell down One Nation’s Darren Hercus.

Hercus secured 24.7 per cent of the superior vote, compared to Hutchison’s 21.3 per cent.

Marsh, intelligibly buoyed by the outcome, told supporters connected Saturday nighttime that helium was honoured by the result.

“It is the honour of my beingness to stand present arsenic the adjacent Member for Nepean,” helium said.

“I will beryllium retired there each day, warring for the radical of Nepean arsenic we caput towards 1 of the astir important state elections we’ve seen.”

He aboriginal told ABC the run had been tough.

“One Nation and everyone other came astatine this hard,” helium said.

“Elections are inherently competitive, but I gave it everything and we achieved the effect we wanted.”

He said the enactment is present focused connected November.

“There’s different predetermination coming, but archetypal we’ll get retired into the assemblage and amusement radical they made the close choice.”

Hercus accused the Liberals of spreading misinformation astir One Nation’s policies.

Holding up a rotation of toilet insubstantial during his speech, helium said it was “to springiness to the Liberal Party for each the rubbish they said astir me”.

“Even if we don’t win, we held the motivation precocious ground,” helium said.

He described Saturday’s contention arsenic tough, with “mixed” reactions from voters bushed of bare promises.

“We had plentifulness of Liberal voters coming crossed to us due to the fact that of the vexation they felt with their ain party.”

He said the by-election would service arsenic a springboard for November.

“We’ll beryllium back… One Nation will win successful November,” helium said.

An affectional Hutchison thanked her supporters and said she was arrogant of her campaign.

“This is my home, I was calved here, I’m a Rosebud local,” she said.

Liberal Leader Jess Wilson (second right) and Nepean MP Anthony Marsh (right) astatine the 2026 Nepean by-election successful Rosebud, arsenic One Nation continues to stalk the Liberal vote. Saturday, May 2, 2026.
Photo: AAP /Ian Currie

She too confirmed that she will tally again successful November.

“Democracy is wild and wonderful. The privilege of voting is extraordinary, and it’s profoundly moving to spot radical walk into a polling booth with your sanction connected the ballot.”

“Two large parties threw everything astatine this contest… but we ran a genuine grassroots section run that shows radical person powerfulness successful politics, and this is what it looks like.”

Kos Samaras: Nepean shows One Nation whitethorn beryllium approaching its electoral ceiling

The Liberals retained the spot but suffered a driblet successful their superior vote compared to the erstwhile election. The Nepean by-election was the archetypal existent δοκιμή for the Liberals successful trying to stop haemorrhaging voters to One Nation.

RedBridge pollster Kos Samaras, and erstwhile Victorian Labor strategist, highlighted cardinal lessons from the result. In a Facebook station connected Saturday night, helium said the spot “moved mostly arsenic expected”.

“The much affluent, much educated extremity of the electorate—Sorrento, Portsea, Flinders, Red Hill—held steadfast for the Liberals. But suburbs similar Rosebud and Tootgarook recorded a important One Nation vote.”

“That matters. In Nepean, that working-class illustration is geographically contained. In dozens of different seats, held by Labor, Liberals and Nationals alike, it’s acold much widespread.”

“A large enactment bled support to its fringes, the protestation vote rose, but ultimately preferences and demographics pulled the effect backmost to a traditional contest.” Kos Samaras

He said the effect is “a preview of what the Victorian predetermination successful November mightiness look like”.

In a follow-up station connected Sunday morning, Samaras said Nepean “was ne'er the battleground for One Nation—and the by-election proved it”.

“This is simply a spot where astir three-quarters of voters unrecorded within a fewer kilometres of the coast. That matters. You’re dealing with an older, much settled, asset-rich colonisation tied to a coastal economy—tourism, small business, retirees, manner voters.

“It’s not the outer metro owe belt, and it’s not the struggling determination towns where One Nation’s connection resonates more.”

“So yes, there was a displacement against a large party. But the structure held.”

He called it a “classic fragmentation story”.

“A large enactment bled support to its fringes, the protestation vote rose, but ultimately preferences and demographics pulled the effect backmost to a traditional contest.”

He emphasised that this is the constituent galore miss.

“If One Nation isn’t a superior menace successful a spot similar Nepean, contempt the existent environment, that tells you precisely where their ceiling is.

“Even successful today’s volatile governmental environment, demographics and geography still matter.”