Mitsotakis–Erdogan Meeting in New York: Open Channels or New Escalation?

Turkey appears progressively confident, having reconnected with the White House and revisiting deals for F-16s and F-35s, portion movements successful the Aegean, specified arsenic the NAVTEX for the probe vessel Piri Reis, support tensions high. Athens remains connected alert, alert that immoderate provocation could trigger an contiguous effect and destabilize the situation.

Expected Discussion Topics

• EEZ and Continental Shelf: Officially the lone constituent of quality according to Greece, but with broader geostrategic implications.
• Maritime Spatial Planning and Marine Parks: Greek initiatives that could foster practice oregon provoke friction.
• Eastern Mediterranean Energy Prospects: Hydrocarbon blocks southbound of Crete and the Peloponnese, with European interest.
• Turkey-Libya Memorandum: Ongoing challenges to Greek maritime rights successful the southeast Mediterranean.
• SAFE European Defense Program and Casus Belli: Turkey’s information successful European defence projects is linked to abandoning threats of subject action.
• Cyprus and Minority/Religious Rights: Likely to beryllium discussed, though not a cardinal topic.

Key Factors Determining the Outcome

1. Level of Commitments and Red Lines Greece is firm: advancement is lone imaginable with wide conditions — nary provocations astatine sea, a absorption solely connected EEZ and continental shelf, and abandonment of casus belli for Turkey’s information successful European programs.

2. Post-Meeting Behavior successful the Field Any caller NAVTEX or Piri Reis movement successful the Aegean would instantly undermine diplomatic efforts. Conversely, restraint would awesome a willingness to de-escalate.

3. Role of the United States Negotiations implicit F-16/F-35 jets and S-400 issues straight impact the strategical equilibrium and the dynamics of the meeting.

Possible Scenarios

A. De-escalation Reaffirmed connection channels, avoidance of caller NAVTEX, and statement to restart the Supreme Cooperation Council with a timeline — tiny but fragile steps toward trust.

B. Frozen Diplomacy Agreements connected wide orientations without binding commitments. Relations stay tense, with country for instability successful the field.

C. New Escalation Immediate provocations astatine oversea oregon rhetoric expanding the docket (gray zones, demilitarization of islands), returning to a rhythm of tension.

The New York Test

The gathering is improbable to present melodramatic solutions but volition uncover whether determination is country for de-escalation oregon if a caller rhythm of hostility is beginning. The archetypal 48–72 hours aft the gathering — monitored via NAVTEX, subject movements, and statements — volition amusement whether Greece tin presumption itself arsenic a “pillar of stability” successful the portion oregon if the dynamics volition beryllium mislaid successful the sound of Turkish actions.