Greek Exports Face Rising Risks From Middle East Instability, Report Warns

Economic study warns Middle East tensions could rise costs, disrupt proviso chains and weaken request for Greek exports successful 2026. Credit: Flickr/ EU-Ukraine Cooperation / CC BY SA 2

Recent geopolitical tensions successful the Middle East are creating caller risks for Greek exports, according to Alpha Bank’s latest report, which warns of mounting unit connected planetary trade.

The slope outlines 3 main channels, including higher accumulation costs, proviso concatenation disruptions, and weaker request from cardinal trading partners, done which the instability could impact exports.

Greek exports aft a beardown decennary look caller uncertainty from the Middle East

After a beardown decennary of dependable growth, supported by improved competitiveness and a robust manufacturing sector, Greek exports present look caller uncertainty from the Middle East. This advancement is reflected successful the shifting creation of exports. Goods accounted for 48% of full exports successful 2025, up from 39% successful 2009. Trade with the United States besides remained unchangeable successful 2025 contempt tariff uncertainty.

Still, the outlook for 2026 is becoming much fragile. Alpha Bank warns that ongoing geopolitical instability, combined with disruptions successful planetary lipid supply, volition apt measurement connected planetary trade. At the aforesaid time, uncertainty astir large maritime routes remains a cardinal concern.

Middle East vulnerability adds to risk

Exports to thirteen Middle Eastern countries accounted for 6.4% of Greece’s full exports successful 2025, making the portion an important, though not dominant, destination for Greek goods. At the aforesaid time, Greece remains intimately tied to Europe, with much than 57% of exports going to European Union countries, galore of which are besides facing energy-related pressures.

Within the Middle East, Lebanon, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia were among the main destinations for Greek exports, with mineral fuels making up a important stock of shipments to those markets.

EU commercialized deals could make caller openings

Despite the rising risks, Alpha Bank points to imaginable opportunities done European Union commercialized agreements with countries specified arsenic India and Australia.

According to estimates cited successful the report, EU exports to India could treble by 2032, portion commercialized with Australia could turn by arsenic overmuch arsenic 33% implicit the adjacent decade. Greek companies could payment if they follow targeted strategies to fortify their planetary presence.

Greek exports amusement resilience successful 2025 contempt Middle East risks

Greek exports remained resilient successful 2025, reaching €48.7 cardinal (about $57.6 billion), somewhat beneath the €50 cardinal (about $58.9 billion) recorded successful 2024, chiefly owed to a diminution successful petroleum merchandise exports.

Excluding petroleum products, however, exports reached a grounds €37 cardinal ($43.6 billion). Several sectors recorded maturation during the year:

• Food: +9.4%
• Beverages and tobacco: +7.8%
• Chemicals: +3.9%
• Industrial products: +3.4%

In contrast, mineral substance exports fell by astir 15%. Even so, they inactive accounted for the largest stock of full exports astatine 26%. Manufacturing continued to predominate Greece’s export profile, accounting for astir 70% of full exports. Over the past decade, the sector’s full worth has astir doubled.