Good news for EU economy spells good outlook for Greek growth, economic actors say

1 week ago 21

Greece’s maturation complaint is expected to stay beardown arsenic a effect of 2 pieces of bully quality concerning the European Union system successful caller days, according to economical actors with cognition of the processes taking spot successful Brussels and Frankfurt.

The archetypal bully quality concerns the maturation complaint of the Eurozone successful the 2nd 4th of this twelvemonth which, according to the archetypal indications, shows wide signs of acceleration compared to the archetypal 4th (0.3%). The 2nd concerns the people of ostentation which, contempt the information that it remained stagnant successful April astatine 2.4%, is nevertheless estimated to stay connected a downward trajectory, successful accordance with the objectives acceptable by the European Central Bank (ECB). This strengthens the imaginable of a simplification successful involvement rates, not lone successful June, but perchance successful July arsenic well, if this inclination is confirmed implicit the coming period.

This is seen arsenic an denotation that the eurozone is coming retired of the method recession of the past 2 quarters and besides doing truthful successful an situation of declining inflation, which volition let a simplification successful involvement rates that volition summation disposable income, depletion and investments.

This affirmative situation ensures that the maturation of the Greek system volition stay beardown based connected the forecasts of the Stability Programme for this twelvemonth and the years that follow, the sources noted.

The Stability Programme submitted to the Commission successful the mediate of past week predicted a maturation complaint successful Greece of 2.5% for this twelvemonth and 2.6% successful 2025. These forecasts were based connected an summation successful backstage depletion connected an yearly ground by 1.6% successful the 2 years 2024-2025, chiefly owed to an summation successful disposable income from rising wages and falling inflation. Public depletion volition determination successful the other direction, with its maturation complaint astatine debased levels successful 2024 (0.7%) and astatine antagonistic levels successful 2025 (-2.5%). More important than backstage consumption, however, volition beryllium the publication to maturation of backstage investments. According to the programme, gross fixed superior enactment is expected to summation by 9.1% successful 2024 and by 14.4% successful 2025 arsenic a effect of the absorption of Recovery and Resilience Facility funds, little involvement rates and the much favourable economical situation pursuing Greece’s betterment of the concern grade.

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Thus, concern arsenic a percent of GDP is estimated to summation to 17% successful 2025, from 14% successful 2023, frankincense narrowing the spread with the Eurozone mean (22% successful 2023).

The fiscal forecasts

As acold arsenic the superior fund surplus is concerned, the programme predicts that this volition basal astatine 2.1% of GDP successful 2024 and 2025, portion the wide authorities shortage is forecast to measurement 1.2% of GDP this twelvemonth and 0.9% of GDP successful 2025. Public indebtedness is projected to constrictive to 146.3% of GDP successful 2025 from 152.7% of GDP successful 2024 and 161.9% of GDP successful 2023.

SOURCE; ANA-MPA

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