First hours of a fragile ceasefire

Israeli hostage Eitan Horn waves adjacent to erstwhile hostage and his member Yair, with their parent Ruti Strum, left, astatine the Ichilov Hospital, successful Tel Aviv, Israel, connected Oct. 13, 2025. [Ohad Zwigenberg/AP]

Monday’s speech of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners – which was not a fixed until it took spot – means that the efforts to bring bid to Gaza tin continue, adjacent arsenic three decisive questions stay open. Will Hamas disarm? Will the ceasefire hold? How will Gaza beryllium governed? Here we indispensable enactment Donald Trump’s important relation successful what preceded the ceasefire and, astir likely, successful what follows.

The statement followed days of indirect negotiations betwixt Israel and Hamas with the mediation of Egypt, Qatar, Turkey and the United States, connected the ground of the 20-point program that the US president presented successful precocious September. Without our knowing however the negotiations developed, it appears that Trump was capable to enactment sufficient unit connected Benjamin Netanyahu, seeing arsenic helium (Trump) was the Israeli premier minister’s strongest supporter. Israel’s unsuccessful onslaught connected Hamas’s negotiating team while it was successful Qatar appears to person been a decisive moment.

Trump was furious astatine the onslaught connected a US state (and donor of the adjacent Air Force One) and helium forced Netanyahu to apologize to Qatar, possibly contributing to Hamas’s agreeing to participate negotiations. Some time we whitethorn larn however each broadside was “persuaded” to agree. In immoderate case, some had exhausted themselves: Israel seemed to person nary argumentation different than to proceed the slaughter successful Gaza until Hamas surrendered, while Hamas had obscurity to fell aft Israeli crushed forces began to propulsion into Gaza City.

When a ceasefire is based connected the antagonists’ exhaustion, it is very apt that hostilities will resume when 1 broadside feels that it has replenished its strength, oregon that the different broadside is “provoking” it. When there is simply a deficiency of clarity implicit the paramount contented of Hamas’s disarming (Trump says this will happen, Hamas disagrees), the truce will beryllium astir fragile. Also, aft the euphoria of the archetypal hours, there will beryllium large governmental and κοινωνικά ferment connected some sides. Netanyahu will travel under aggravated unit from the far-right extremists successful his government, and besides from the opposition. Furthermore, helium will nary longer beryllium capable to debar standing earlier a tribunal by arguing that helium is too engaged warring a war. Hamas will person to explicate what it gained by the slaughter of Israelis connected October 7, 2023, and why this was worth the lives of much than 67,000 Palestinians and the demolition of Gaza by the Israelis.

For some sides, this is simply a clip of reckoning. What governmental model will beryllium capable to incorporate these tensions? What comes adjacent will find the two peoples’ fate. And that of the broader region.