Emmanuel Macron's visit to Serbia: Why is it important and what’s at stake?

After having declared that Serbia's aboriginal lies "within the European Union ... and obscurity else” backmost successful April, French President Emmanuel Macron continues his charm violative successful the Western Balkans. 

The caput of authorities is acceptable to question for an authoritative sojourn to Belgrade connected 29 and 30 August, according to the Elysée Palace.

One of the astir burning topics volition beryllium the merchantability of 12 French-manufactured Rafale combatant jets worthy €3 billion. 

Belgrade has been ramping up its arms spending this twelvemonth and “France has go a favourite destination for the Serbian rearmament effort,” said Dr Sophie Gueudet, a researcher specialised successful Western Balkans astatine the Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna wrong the Horizon RE-ENGAGE task successful Italy. 

It’s an effort by Macron to solidify bilateral relations by trying to divert Serbia from its Russian dependency connected defence and information systems. 

“Bringing backmost Aleksandar Vučić, President of Serbia, person to the EU sphere could beryllium seen arsenic a astute diplomatic determination by Macron,” Dr Gueudet told Euronews. 

A mendacious illusion, astir experts believe. “Serbia has been cultivating bully ties with Russia and China these past fewer years too,” explained Florian Bieber, a prof of Southeast European History and Politics astatine the University of Graz. 

Chinese person Xi Jinping visited Belgrade successful May arsenic portion of his archetypal sojourn to Europe since the COVID-19 pandemic successful 2020. Beijing has poured billions into Serbia, peculiarly into mining and manufacturing. 

As for Russia, Serbia remains its closest state successful the Western Balkans owed to their robust vigor cooperation, absorption to Kosovo’s independence, and shared Eastern Orthodox religion. 

“Every time, determination are these partnerships with the EU, Belgrade manages to besides equilibrium its narration with China and Russia. Serbia volition ne'er enactment each of its eggs successful 1 basket,” said Strahinja Subotić, a elder researcher astatine the European Policy Center successful Belgrade. 

“As agelong arsenic Serbia remains vigor and Kosovo-dependent connected Russia, the Kremlin volition ever person leverage,” said Subotić to Euronews.

The thorny taxable of Serbia’s accession to the EU

Another large contented successful the works volition beryllium Serbia’s accession to the EU, which relies heavy connected the normalisation of relations with Kosovo. 

Belgrade doesn’t recognise the sovereignty of Pristina, which declared independency successful 2008. Numerous Brussels-led attempts astatine appeasement and dialog person failed successful caller years. 

“Due to the tense geopolitical discourse and nary strategy of checks and balances with what Serbia is going to bash with these accrued defence capabilities, I americium sceptical that it's a omniscient determination for France to adjacent merchantability arms to Serbia,” said Dr Gueudet. 

Macron has appeared to broadside with Serbia connected the conflict. In aboriginal August, France condemned "the multiplication of unilateral actions by the Kosovar authorities", which "jeopardise the normalisation efforts.” 

But analysts stay sceptical of Vučić’s governmental volition to really determination guardant with EU integration. 

“These attempts are much trying to bring Serbia person to the EU done economical elements alternatively values of EU integration,” said Florian Bieber. 

“Officially, Serbia is committed to its accession to the EU but determination has been nary important advancement these past fewer years,” helium explained. 

While Belgrade has made immoderate advancement successful the judiciary, constricted advancement was made successful the regularisation of law, the combat against corruption, organised crime, and state of expression, according to the yearly advancement study connected Serbia released by the European Commission successful 2023. 

“Vučić’s would emotion to beryllium portion of the EU, but lone if helium tin enactment similar Hungary’s Viktor Orban,” quipped Subotić. 

The European Parliament has accused EU member-state Hungary of progressively backsliding connected the regularisation of law, corruption and LGBTQ+ rights these past fewer years. 

By adhering to these antiauthoritarian principles needed to articulation the EU, experts judge Vučić’s authorities — often accused of repressing governmental opponents and muzzling autarkic media outlets — could person overmuch to lose.

Euronews has reached retired to the Serbian authorities for comment.