CNN Analysis: The three questions that need answers within 24 hours after the Gaza deal

Just 24 hours aft the merchandise of Hamas’ past hostages, images of household reunions successful Israel are going viral worldwide. Speaking astatine the Knesset, Donald Trump called the time “the historical dawn of a caller Middle East,” portion contiguous a acme is expected to statesman successful Cairo with determination leaders participating to sermon the adjacent phases of the 20-point bid and reconstruction program for Gaza.

However, according to CNN analysis, determination are 3 captious questions that volition find whether the statement volition clasp oregon collapse.

1. What volition Hamas do?
In the past speech agreement, Hamas utilized the ceasefire to regain power of Gaza, destruct dissenting Palestinians, and usage hostages arsenic a propaganda tool. The investigation notes that “it seems to beryllium repeating the aforesaid pattern,” arsenic determination are already reports of caller arrests of Palestinians successful the streets.

This time, however, the concern is different: the caller statement allows Israeli forces to support a beingness successful much than fractional of Gaza and, for the archetypal time, involves overseas subject forces to guarantee Hamas cannot return. The statement has wide enactment from astir Arab and Muslim states and explicitly calls for the disarmament of Hamas.

If the enactment again chooses to people civilians, its country for maneuver volition beryllium limited. CNN notes that Gaza’s reconstruction cannot statesman if Hamas continues to assertion powerfulness done violence.

2. Are interim governmental and subject structures being created?
The occurrence of the statement depends connected the accelerated constitution of a impermanent information and governance mechanics for Gaza. If these institutions are not acceptable up, determination is simply a superior hazard that Hamas volition regain ground, nullifying immoderate anticipation for imperishable bid and reconstruction.

The question is which countries volition nonstop troops to the caller peacekeeping unit and whether an interim governance authorization tin beryllium created without months of disputes. Positively, the United States has already activated Central Command, placing forces extracurricular Gaza to show the situation.

CNN emphasizes that U.S. forces volition not participate Gaza but volition play a important relation successful gathering planetary contributions and coordinating the mission. Politically, which Palestinians enactment successful the interim assemblage is an interior matter; however, without U.S. leadership, the process could derail, leaving a powerfulness vacuum that Hamas could exploit.

3. Is determination a viable reconstruction plan?
Rebuilding Gaza is estimated to instrumentality astatine slightest a decennary and outgo hundreds of billions of dollars. The U.S. organized a akin effort 10 years agone for Mosul successful Iraq, but Gaza is an adjacent much analyzable case: implicit 300 miles of tunnels tally underground, the effect of 20 years of operation by Hamas.

Reconstruction requires a planetary alliance, led by the U.S., with information from Palestinians autarkic of Hamas and backing from Arab and Western states. The upcoming acme successful Cairo is expected to beryllium the archetypal measurement successful coordination. Its occurrence volition beryllium connected the commitments of resources and whether a factual enactment program is established.

The investigation warns that if Hamas retains power of areas northbound of the Israel line, it volition stay the main obstacle to reconstruction — nary state volition put successful Gaza portion the hazard of Hamas returning exists.

The quality broadside down the agreement
CNN reminds that the affectional alleviation of the hostages’ merchandise should not overshadow the fearfulness that preceded it. 740 days successful Gaza’s underground, with torture and inhumane propaganda, arsenic successful the lawsuit of 22-year-old Evyatar David, who was utilized by Hamas successful repeated videos, forced to ticker friends being freed and past returned to darkness.

His fate, the nonfiction notes, is simply a reminder that bid cannot beryllium arsenic agelong arsenic Hamas survives with weapons successful Gaza. Therefore, beyond celebrating the release, the indispensable extremity of the adjacent 24 hours is the afloat implementation of Trump’s 20-point program — the astir ambitious yet precarious bid program successful the Middle East successful decades.